Huturu Malige Blue Film

Three tragedies: Chapter one

Greetings! Today I open

section three tragedies, in which each X time publish an interesting game situation, will lay out three possible solutions and will comment on them. Today I will begin at the beginning, the opening of the game then you do not know what plays your opponent and make us doubt whether mulligan. I begin with an example of departure from All in red:

The hand is: Mountain, Mountain, Ritual desperate Trinisfera, Blood Moon, Guardian Spirit, ape, Demigod of revenge.

First, always, consider the options:

a) We can play Mountain, remove ape Guardian Spirit, Ritual desperate Trinisfera.
b) We can play Mountain remove ape Guardian Spirit, Ritual desperate, Blood Moon.
c) We can play Mountain, to turn, wait and see who steal and down another mountain and Demigod (maybe) or blood moon / trinisfera less resources exhausted.
d) We can see Mulligan. In this case consider the option because the hand is pretty good.

Here are three basic options, analicémoslas:

a) is very good Vs: Elves, Zoo, TEPS, Affinity.
is mediocre / bad Vs: XLU, Mono W control, DC rock, Bant aggro, Faeries.
is terrible Vs: Tron, Dredge, Astral Slide, Tezzerator Swans. To find out

if this hand is good, then we look at a rough breakdown of the format and decide what times are not very useful. About a valid breakdown think it would be this:

Faeries - 35%
Zoo - 20%
TEPS - 5% DC
rock - 14%
Elves! - 6%
Tron - Affinity
3% - 8%
XLU - 1% Stupid
life - Dredge
1% - 2%
Astral slide -
Tezzerator 1% - 2%
Swans - 1%
Bant aggro - 1 %

Therefore, the option to go either more or less against 39% of the decks, half good vs. evil against 52% and 9%. Compare this with the option b.

b) It is very good Vs: Zoo, Tron.
is mediocre / bad Vs: Affinity, Bant aggro, TEPS and some versions of Faeries with many colors that may now start to play more, but at the moment are ignored.
is terrible Vs: Faeries, Swans, Tezzerator, Astral slide, Dredge, Elves, Stupid life, XLU / DC rock. Ergo

option b would be well more or less against 23% of the decks, half good vs. evil against 14% and 63%. C. Time for


c) This is interesting: D We give a turn to the opponent but we play to what the steal. Now see what is the probability of stealing something useful, taking the AIR Ratkevicius Petrak, of the world. Chance to steal ...

Useless:
Mountain: 17/53, 32%.
Magus of the moon: 3 / 53, 5%.
Deus of calamity: 4 / 53, 7%.
Demigod of Revenge: 3 / 53, 5%. Umezawa's Jitte
: 1 / 53, 2%.
Trinisfera: 1 / 53, 2%. Breaking Reguero
: 1 / 53, 2%.
Empty the Warrens (would be 2, so not worth much): 3 / 53, 5%. Blood Moon
: 2 / 53, 4%.

Total: 64%. You should now subtract 100-64, but as I made approximations billets, I also calculate the percentage of tools.

ape Guardian Spirit: 3 / 53, 5%. Song
Boiling: 4 / 53, 7%.
Rite of Flame: 4 / 53, 7%. Ritual
desperate: 3 / 53, 5%. Chrome Mox
: 4 / 53, 7%.

Total: 31%. It gives us a total of 95%. Acceptable.

So the chances of success are 31 to 64. Moreover, once it enters the demigod, the second round, need not be split. Anyway, if it is not, we can still play the trinisfera or blood moon. 2 ° The moon is completely discarded because of first and seemed suboptimal. The trinity, however, not quite, but the other will have already put a ground and be a threat in the game where the trinity is good. For example, against elves and may have gone down and play a Llanowar shift Viridian Shaman 2, or affinity may have fallen leaf spring drum / orni, so trini 2 nd shift does not reach that of the first or the sole of the shoe.

Morals: In this case it is best trinisfera down, even if you play it to lose against certain decks, the probability goes in your favor. I seem to be going down to the demi you money, but is easily removable or chumploqueable until you control the game. So I know the man and plays the trini ice. Anyway, do not forget that the trinity is no win condition and, as always in this deck, you play it. But it gives you more turns to steal accelerators other options. Conclusion two, in this environment trinisferas tech and moons are not so good, so we should take from the deck 2 by 2 Trinis efects moon and ending three, the deck has too many mountains, as the top draw is bad. Best -4 / 8 mountains, +4 / 8 manamorfosis or street appearance.

I hope you liked the article. I'll do a couple more starts, I will pass on to what we all love, the middle game.

tomorrow!